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Possibility theory : ウィキペディア英語版
Possibility theory

Possibility theory is a mathematical theory for dealing with certain types of uncertainty and is an alternative to probability theory. Professor Lotfi Zadeh first introduced possibility theory in 1978 as an extension of his theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. Didier Dubois and Henri Prade further contributed to its development. Earlier in the 50s, economist G. L. S. Shackle proposed the min/max algebra to describe degrees of potential surprise.
==Formalization of possibility==
For simplicity, assume that the universe of discourse Ω is a finite set, and assume that all subsets are measurable. A distribution of possibility is a function \operatorname from 2^\Omega to () such that:
:Axiom 1: \operatorname(\varnothing) = 0
:Axiom 2: \operatorname(\Omega) = 1
:Axiom 3: \operatorname(U \cup V) = \max \left( \operatorname(U), \operatorname(V) \right) for any disjoint subsets U and V.
It follows that, like probability, the possibility measure is determined by its behavior on singletons:
:\operatorname(U) = \max_ \operatorname(\)
provided that ''U'' is finite or countably infinite.
Axiom 1 can be interpreted as the assumption that Ω is an exhaustive description of future states of the world, because it means that no belief weight is given to elements outside Ω.
Axiom 2 could be interpreted as the assumption that the evidence from which \operatorname was constructed is free of any contradiction. Technically, it implies that there is at least one element in Ω with possibility 1.
Axiom 3 corresponds to the additivity axiom in probabilities. However there is an important practical difference. Possibility theory is computationally more convenient because Axioms 1–3 imply that:
:\operatorname(U \cup V) = \max \left( \operatorname(U), \operatorname(V) \right) for ''any'' subsets U and V.
Because one can know the possibility of the union from the possibility of each component, it can be said that possibility is ''compositional'' with respect to the union operator. Note however that it is not compositional with respect to the intersection operator. Generally:
:\operatorname(U \cap V) \leq \min \left( \operatorname(U), \operatorname(V) \right)
When Ω is not finite, Axiom 3 can be replaced by:
:For all index sets I, if the subsets U_ are pairwise disjoint, \operatorname\left(\cup_ U_i\right) = \sup_\operatorname(U_i).

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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